Markets March Higher, First Solar Breaks $190 PT, NEXTracker Beats on Earnings in a Big Way
- Trevor Carnovsky
- May 14
- 4 min read
Updated: Nov 6
Stocks Erase Early Losses, Now Flat for 2025:
Tariffs have been a significant market driver early in 2025, which caused a brief 12% fall in the S&P 500. However, considering the recent trade announcements, the markets have recovered to flat for the year. The Trump Administration announced a trade deal with the United Kingdom late last week. According to whitehouse.gov, the deal is structured as so
The UK will import more agricultural goods from the U.S., including ethanol and beef.
The 10% reciprocal tariff rate originally announced on “Liberation Day” remains intact.
The first 100 thousand vehicles imported into the U.S. each year will remain subject to the 10% tariff rate, while any vehicle imported after that is subject to a 25% tariff rate.
Though this can be considered a move in the right direction, markets stayed generally flat in response to this developing trade deal between the two nations. Soon after this trade deal was announced, the administration announced plans to meet with Chinese representatives in Geneva, Switzerland, to begin negotiations toward a trade deal. The markets again showed little reaction to this news, as there was little confidence that the talks would lead to any significant breakthroughs. However, as Mother's Day weekend came to an end, the Trump Administration announced that the U.S. and China agreed to a 90-day tariff pause, as trade deal negotiations continue during these 90 days. This brought the previous tariff rate on U.S. imports from China of 145% down to 30%. In response, China followed suit and reduced its 125% tariff rate to 10% on U.S. goods. Following this news, the equity markets have marched higher, with the S&P 500 up over 4% this week. Though the 90-day tariff pause has the potential to lead to an inked deal between the U.S. and China, it remains to be seen. Nevertheless, investors remain hopeful for further positive development on the trade front.
First Solar Surges Beyond My $190 Target—What’s Next?
New policy developments confirm that the IRA 45x solar tax credits will likely remain intact. The Trump Administration’s “Big, Beautiful Bill” still has many obstacles to climb, but solar seems safe. The bill has now made its way out of the Ways and Means Committee and into the House of Representatives. Investors expected the bill would significantly revise or even slash Solar's 45x tax credits. However, it has only minor revisions, including a phase-out process beginning in 2029. Responding to this news and the China-U.S. 90-day tariff pause, First Solar has boomed beyond my initial conservative $190 price target. I remain optimistic about the company’s long-term growth trajectory and have revised revenue forecasts, implementing a $262 price target.
NEXTracker Delivers a Major Earnings Beat:
NEXTracker posted a strong earnings surprise today. With key financial metrics beating analysts' expectations:
25.5% increase in sales YOY, with reported revenues of $924.3 million vs. the analysts’ estimates of $830.5 million (11% beat).
Adjusted EPS of $1.29 vs. analyst estimates of $.98, a 32% beat.
Adjusted EBITDA beat by 25%, coming in at $242.5 million vs. analyst estimates of $194.8 million.
The company also raised guidance for FY26 with revenues at the midpoint of 3.3 billion, beating analyst expectations by 3.3%.
NEXTracker's explosive revenue growth continues. Over the last 4 years, the company has experienced a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 25% as backlogs continue to grow. This showcases strong global demand for solar energy and tracking technology.
This further emphasizes the increased demand for their solar tracking technologies. NEXTracker's backlog increased to $4.5 billion in the latest quarter, up 12% YOY and averaging a 45% increase over the last 2 years. As stated in my previous article, there are some risks to these rapidly growing backlogs, especially since they are growing faster than revenues. Although the company has done a great job strengthening its global supply chain and manufacturing facilities to meet demand.
NEXTracker's EPS continues to grow at a remarkable rate. Experiencing a CAGR of 128% over the last 2 years. This further proves the company has been able to expand its operations and manage backlogs while keeping costs low and increasing profitability.
NEXTracker also announced the acquisition of Bentek Corporation for $78 million. With this acquisition, NEXTracker gains cutting-edge electrical technology and a broadened supply chain, further decreasing costs. Bentek specializes in electric balance of system (EBOS) technology. EBOS technology is an electrical infrastructure used to carry electricity across solar fields.
NEXTracker's earnings report blew analyst expectations out of the water. The company continues to expand global operations and grow important financial metrics at a rate that analysts struggle to keep up with. The company experiences significant momentum as it battles rising backlogs. With significant revenue growth and profitability expansion, the future is bright for NEXTracker.
References
Yahoo! (n.d.-a). Nextracker’s (NASDAQ:NXT) Q1: Beats on revenue, guides for strong full-year sales. Yahoo! Finance. https://finance.yahoo.com/news/nextracker-nasdaq-nxt-q1-beats-201755509.html
Contacts, M. (2025, May 14). Nextracker expands solar technology platform with Ebos Portfolio. Global Press Release & Newswire Distribution Services. https://www.businesswire.com/news/home/20250514596620/en/Nextracker-Expands-Solar-Technology-Platform-with-eBOS-Portfolio
The United States Government. (2025a, May 12). Art of the deal: U.S., China Ink Initial Trade deal. The White House. https://www.whitehouse.gov/articles/2025/05/art-of-the-deal-u-s-china-ink-initial-trade-deal/
CBS Interactive. (n.d.). House GOP pulls all-nighter as they try to push Trump’s “big, beautiful bill” forward. CBS News. https://www.cbsnews.com/news/house-gop-trump-big-beautiful-bill-all-nighter/
https://www.reuters.com/world/china/us-cut-de-minimis-tariff-china-shipments-54-120-2025-05-13/
Yahoo! (n.d.-c). Trump tariffs live updates: Trump’s pause on China tariffs still a “nightmare” for small businesses. Yahoo! Finance. https://finance.yahoo.com/news/live/trump-tariffs-live-updates-trumps-pause-on-china-tariffs-still-a-nightmare-for-small-businesses-191201426.html
The United States Government. (2025a, May 8). Fact sheet: U.S.-UK reach historic trade deal. The White House. https://www.whitehouse.gov/fact-sheets/2025/05/fact-sheet-u-s-uk-reach-historic-trade-deal/
Disclaimer: This is not financial advice; please perform your own research and due diligence before making investment decisions.
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